Hadjikakou, M.; Bowles, N.; Geyik, O.; Conijn, J.G.; Mogollón, J.M.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Müller, A.; Weindl, I.; Moallemi, E.A.; Shaikh, M.A.; Damerau, K.; Davis, K.F.; Pfister, S.; Springmann, M.; Clark, M.; Metson, G.S.; Röös, E.; Bajzelj, B.; Graham, N.T.; Wisser, D.; Doelman, J.C.; Deppermann, A.; Theurl, M.C.; Pradhan, P.; Stevanovic, M.; Lauk, C.; Chang, J.; Heck, V.; Ercin, E.; Peng, L.; Springer, N.P.; Bouwman, A.F.; Morais, T.G.; Valin, H.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Erb, K.-H.; Popp, M.A.; Herrero, M.; Dumas, P.; Zhang, X.; Searchinger, T. and Bryan, B.A. (2023) Mitigating risk of exceeding environmental limits requires ambitious food system interventions. Preprint, x, xx-xx. [Submitted]
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Document available online at: https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/5231/
Summary
Transforming the global food system is necessary to avoid exceeding planetary boundaries. A robust evidence base is crucial to assess the scale and combination of interventions required for a sustainable transformation. We developed a risk assessment framework, underpinned by a meta-regression of 60 global food system modeling studies, to quantify the potential of individual and combined interventions to mitigate the risk of exceeding the boundaries for land-system change, freshwater use, climate change, and biogeochemical flows by 2050. Limiting the risk of exceedance across four key planetary boundaries requires a high but plausible level of ambition in all demand-side (diet, population, waste) and most supply-side interventions. Attaining the required level of ambition for all interventions relies on embracing synergistic actions across the food system.
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