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Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits

Hadjikakou, Michalis; Bowles, Nicholas I.; Geyik, Ozge; Conijn, Sjaak J.G.; Mogollón, José M.; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Müller, Adrian; Weindl, Isabelle; Moallemi, Enayat A.; Shaikh, Mohammad A.; Damerau, Kerstin; Davis, Kyle F.; Pfister, Stephan; Springmann, Marco; Clark, Michael; Metson, Geneviève S.; Röös, Elin; Bajzelj, Bojana; Graham, Neal T.; Wisser, Dominik; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Deppermann, Andre; Theurl, Michaela C.; Pradhan, Prajal; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Lauk, Christian; Chang, Jinfeng; Heck, Vera; Ercin, Ertug; Peng, Liqing; Springer, Nathaniel P.; Bouwman, Alexander F.; Morais, Tiago G.; Valin, Hugo; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Popp, Alexander; Herrero, Mario; Dumas, Patrice; Zhang, Xin and Bryan, Brett A. (2025) Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits. One Earth, 8 (101351), pp. 1-23.

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Document available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2590332225001770


Summary

Transforming the global food system is essential to avoid exceeding Earth’s environmental limits. A robust evidence base is crucial to assess the scale and combination of interventions required for a sustainable transformation. We developed a risk assessment framework, underpinned by an evidence synthesis of global food system modeling studies, to quantify the potential of individual and combined interventions to mitigate the risk of exceeding global environmental limits for agricultural area, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, surface water flows, and nutrient cycles by 2050. GHG emissions and nutrient cycles are the most difficult limits to avoid exceeding and are conditional on shifts toward diets with a low proportion of animal-source foods; steep reductions in emissions intensity; substantial improvements in nutrient management, feed-conversion ratios, and crop yields; and efforts to limit overconsumption and food waste. Ambitious actions across the global food system are needed to ensure the required level of risk mitigation.


EPrint Type:Journal paper
Keywords:food system intervention, sustainable agriculture, planetary boundaries, Earth-system boundaries, environmental limits, sustainable diet, meta-analysis, meta-regression, risk assessment, scenario analysis, Abacus, FiBL35244
Agrovoc keywords:
Language
Value
URI
English
food systems
http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_bea5db85
English
sustainable agriculture
http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_33561
English
risk assessment
http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37932
Subjects: Environmental aspects
Knowledge management
Research affiliation:Austria > Univ. BOKU Wien
Canada
Switzerland > ETHZ - Agrarwissenschaften
Switzerland > FiBL - Research Institute of Organic Agriculture Switzerland > Sustainability > Sustainability assessment
Switzerland > FiBL - Research Institute of Organic Agriculture Switzerland > Sustainability > Climate
Switzerland > FiBL - Research Institute of Organic Agriculture Switzerland > Society > Sustainable nutrition
China
European Union > Horizon Europe > trans4num
France > CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement
International Organizations > Food and Agriculture Organisation FAO
Portugal
Sweden > Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)
Taiwan
UK > Univ. Oxford
Germany > University of Kassel
USA > Other organizations USA
Netherlands > Wageningen University & Research (WUR)
Germany > Other organizations Germany
Austria > Other organizations Austria
Netherlands > Other organizations Netherlands
Australia > Other organizations Australia
Horizon Europe or H2020 Grant Agreement Number:101081847
DOI:10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101351
Related Links:https://www.fibl.org/en/themes/projectdatabase/projectitem/project/2285
Deposited By: Frömer, Julia
ID Code:55967
Deposited On:09 Jul 2025 07:22
Last Modified:09 Jul 2025 07:28
Document Language:English
Status:Published
Refereed:Peer-reviewed and accepted

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