Uranian agriculture during the full-scale Russian-Ukranian War: Consequences, policy responses and recovery strategies

Summary

The full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war(RUW) has caused significant damage to the country’s agricultural sector and poses a threat to global food security. However, the impact of the war on agricultural policy remains uncertain. To ensure a deep understanding of the challenges facing Ukraine’s agricultural sector, we systematically review statistical data, legislative and regulatory measures, and relevant literature. Our analysis focuses on the war period from 24 February 2022 to the end of 2024. We identify the main issues arising from the RUWand the agricultural policy responses. In addition, we outline potential trajectories for developing Ukraine’s agricultural sector in the post-war period. This study isthe first attempt to analyse Ukraine’s agricultural policy during the war and envisages future post-war development through a comprehensive assessment of the agricultural challenges and policy frameworks during the war.RUWdamagedUkraine’s agricultural and food production, disrupting trade with other nations. Its global impact was felt through increased fuel and food prices, whichaffected the entire global economy.RUWhas severely disrupted food production and trade in Ukraine. Targeted attacks by the Russian army on Ukrainian agriculture, such as shelling of agricultural facilities and infrastructure across Ukraine, mining and burning of agricultural land near active combat zones, a five-month blockade of Black Sea ports (and the re-imposition of the blockade as of July 2023), and the undermining of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Dam, have severely hampered the functioning of the Ukrainian agricultural sector. It is crucial to determine the key areas that have experienced the most significant impact, including the destruction and deterioration of fixed assets, a decline in cultivatedland due to occupation, landmines, and soil contamination. Other significant challenges encompass export limitations, a decline in domestic food prices, severe disruptions to logistics networks, and shortages of essential resources such as labour, finances, and energy, which hinder the operations of agricultural producers. A comprehensive analysis and synthesis of these challenges will facilitate the identification of strategic directions for maintaining and restoring the agricultural sector both during and after the war.However, there is still a lack of analysis of the Ukrainian agricultural sector and its challenges, as well as a lack of studies on policy adjustments during the war and the sector’s post-war prospects. Our study aims to fill these gaps by providing a comprehensive assessment of the multiple impacts of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war on Ukraine’s agricultural sector. Focusing on the first two and half years of the war, we examine the scale, scope and dynamics of the invasion, while assessing the government’s responses to mitigate its effects. The structure of the paper is such that an overview of Ukraine’s agricultural sector prior to the war is firstly provided, followed by an analysis of how the RUW has affected sector development. The article then assesses the agricultural policy pursued during the war and concludes with a detailed analysis of the results obtained, highlighting their significance for policy and future research.