Achieving the EU Farm-to-Fork 25% Organic Target: How Can Policy Support This Goal?

Summary in the original language of the document

With its Farm-to-Fork (F2F) and Biodiversity strategies, the European Union (EU) has set a very ambitious target of having at least 25 percent of the EU’s agricultural land under organic production by 2030. Between 1985 and 2022, the EU’s organic land and producers experienced a steady growth, doubling every decade to reach around 17 million hectares (10.54 percent) (Figure 99). The COVID-19 pandemic and the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for energy, fertiliser and food prices have impacted conversion confidence in several countries, including Germany, France and Austria. However, overall growth rates at the European level have remained consistent.
Based on past growth trends, it is likely that 15 to 18 percent of the EU’s utilised agricultural area (UAA), equivalent to 24 to 30 million hectares, could be managed organically by 2030 (see Figure 99). Reaching the 25 percent target (40 million hectares), however, represents a greater challenge, requiring at least a 50 percent increase in current growth rates. Without such growth, the 25 percent target might be reached between 2035 (exponential growth projection) and 2050 (linear growth projection).
While the organic land area has doubled, the market has grown nearly threefold each decade since 2000 (Figure 100). Continued exponential growth of this magnitude could result in a retail sales value of 80 billion euros by 2030. The market growth has, however, been impacted recently both by the pandemic (generating faster growth) and the effects of the war in Ukraine (slowing growth). Although some countries have continued to experience market growth, it remains to be seen when growth at EU level will restart. Market development is uneven across the EU, with some countries having wellestablished domestic markets, others relying heavily on exports and some still in the early stages of developing domestic or export markets. Continued market growth is important for producer confidence to convert their farms. The recent decline in market
growth has led to a slow down or even negative conversion rates in some countries, but, as discussed above, this has been compensated by growth elsewhere.