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Modeling the Incidence of Maize Spotted Stem-Borer (Chilo partellus) Infestation Under Long-Term Organic and Conventional Farming Systems

Wainaina, Stephen; Waititu, Anthony; Salifu, Daisy; Mwalili, Samuel; Karanja, Edward N.; Adamtey, Noah; Tonnang, Henri; Matheri, Felix; Mwangi, Edwin; Bautze, David and Tanga, Chrysantus M. (2022) Modeling the Incidence of Maize Spotted Stem-Borer (Chilo partellus) Infestation Under Long-Term Organic and Conventional Farming Systems. International Journal of Data Science and Analysis, 8 (6), pp. 169-181.

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Document available online at: https://sciencepg.com/journal/paperinfo?journalid=367&doi=10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220806.11


Summary

The damage levels of the maize spotted stem borers (Chilo partellus Swinhoe) are estimated at 400,000 metric tons, which is equivalent to 13.5% of farmers' annual maize harvest accounting for US$80 million. Despite the economic importance of the pest, information on the incidence under long-term organic and conventional farming systems is lacking. This study evaluated three different link functions [logit, probit, and complementary log-log – (clog-log)] to reduce prediction errors in overdispersed stem borer incidence data for 12 years in four farming systems. The clog-log link function had the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) indexes for the pest incidence model in Thika. Contrarily, probit showed the lowest AIC and BIC in the Chuka incidence data model. The residual diagnostic plots with clog-log demonstrated no patterns against the predicted values. Our findings revealed that clog-log link function provided the best fit in beta-binomial mixed models compared to others. We advocate for the use of clog-log for long-term pest incidence data modelling to obtain biologically realistic projections. Users of mixed models must incorporate explicit consideration of suitable link function discrimination, model fit and model complexity into their decision-making processes if they build biologically realistic models.


EPrint Type:Journal paper
Keywords:Maize, Spotted Stem Borer, Pest Incidence, Overdispersion, Binomial Proportions, Beta-Binomial Distribution, Abacus, FiBL6524601, SysCom Kenya
Agrovoc keywords:
Language
Value
URI
English
maize
http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_12332
English
stem borers -> stem eating insects
http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7389
English
Kenya
http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_4086
English
statistics
http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_49978
English
modelling
http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_230ab86c
Subjects: Knowledge management > Research methodology and philosophy > Specific methods > Surveys and statistics
Crop husbandry > Production systems > Cereals, pulses and oilseeds
Crop husbandry > Crop health, quality, protection
Research affiliation: Switzerland > FiBL - Research Institute of Organic Agriculture Switzerland > International > Agriculture in the Tropics and Subtropics > Langzeitversuche
Switzerland > FiBL - Research Institute of Organic Agriculture Switzerland > International > Agriculture in the Tropics and Subtropics > Systems comparison
Kenya
ISSN:2575-1891
DOI:10.11648/j.ijdsa.20220806.11
Deposited By: Bautze, David
ID Code:45784
Deposited On:22 Mar 2023 10:09
Last Modified:29 Mar 2023 06:56
Document Language:English
Status:Published
Refereed:Peer-reviewed and accepted

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