Analysis of changes and developments in the organic cereal seed market based on a statistical evaluation of the German national organic seed database organicXseeds

Summary

The Council Regulation (EC) No 834/2007 and the Commission Regulation (EC) No 889/2008 prescribe the use of organically produced seed in organic farming. As a result, the use of non-organic seed and propagating material can only be granted by applying for a derogation. To implement the guidelines, each member state shall provide a seed database to display seed offers from organic production and report statistical information about derogations to the European Commission. In this context, the LIVESEED project seeks to eliminate barriers to the availability of organic seed to ensure the use of 100% organic seed in organic farming from 2037. Thereby, national seed databases will be evaluated and improved.
As part of the LIVESEED project, the aim of the study is to examine if data of web-based national organic seed databases can be used to analyse changes and developments in the organic seed market. For this purpose, data obtained from the crop group “cereals” of the German national seed database organicXseeds was revised and subsequently statistically evaluated. Furthermore, data about the yield per hectare and organic acreage of cereals was obtained by the Agricultural Market Information Society (AMI), the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) and the Statistical Offices of the Federal Government and the Federal States. In the further course, it could be clearly pointed out that a statistical analysis of the organicXseeds data enables detailed insights in the organic seed sector, revealing a number of factors that influence the use of seed from organic and conventional production in organic farming.
Key points are that (a) the number of derogations for conventional seed in organic farming on organicXseeds is decreasing; nevertheless, no significant decreases could be identified and the objective of having no derogations at the key date of January 1st, 2036 can probably not be achieved for every cereal crop; therefore, (b) incentives have been worked out to reduce seed from conventional production in organic farming, concerning the introduction of category-I-crops (crops with sufficient quantities of seed from organic multiplication) and the improvement of the seed and cultivar supply in organic quality; (c) a significant, negative correlation between the supply of seed cultivars in organic quality and the number of requested seed cultivars in conventional quality via organicXseeds were detected; (d) the yield per hectare, which is influenced by external factors such as weather and the spread of diseases, could also be associated with the fluctuating request for conventional seed in organic farming.