Social and environmental consequences of organic farming

Summary
The subproject on Nature- and Environment scenarios describes 4 scenarios of a 25% conversion to organic farming of a distinct area and assesses impacts on nature and environment of these changes. In scenario “Milk” it is mainly livestock farms that convert; the “1997”-scenario is also dominated by dairy farms with a supplement of crop farms; scenario “Crop/pig” includes mainly crop and pig farms while the scenario “Self-sufficiency” includes all farms in a designated area of special environmental sensitivity which in addition are not allowed to import feed. Reported results are only preliminary. They point to a tendency towards lower Nitrate leaching in the whole area for three scenarios while the impact of the “Crop/pig” scenario remains unclear. The load of pesticides is reduced. In scenarios “Milk” and “1997” the reduction amounts to less than the expected 25% while it is 31% for crop and pig farms. Regarding soil disturbance, the undisturbed area increases with 35% and 21% in the scenarios “Milk” and “1997” while the increase for “Crop/pigs” is 10% and for “Self-sufficiency” 15%. Conversion of crop and pig farms leads to a 6% increase in areas with higher soil disturbance than conventional cereal crops. Undersown fields increase from 8% of the total area to 10% and 14% in the two dairy producer dominated scenarios – and up to 18% and 19% of the total area in “Crop/pigs” and “Self-sufficiency”. An in-depth study of the conditions of life for skylarks shows that density of territory and the total production of young birds is significantly larger in organic than conventional fields although mechanical cultivation even here shows negative impacts.

The subproject on societal developmental processes and preconditions shows that organic farmers in general have more alternative attitudes than farmers in general. Even the latest converted farmers motivate the choice of organic farming by concern for the environment. Individual wishes for increasing professional and personal development are counting still more as well as – to a minor extent – economy. There is a clear attitudinal potential for organic farming growth because the general attitude in agriculture seems to become still more alternative and organic farming has gained acceptance as farming system. An international comparison shows that public support contributes to the development of organic farming, but development also needs a broad institutional back up from private firms and organisations. In Denmark the institutional back up is especially high because of a situation of socalled creative conflict/co-operation between the organic sector and general agriculture organisations and food firms – not least promoted by the Danish Organic Food Council. A formal economic analysis shows that organic farming experience larger and more diverging changes than conventional farming both in production and in consumption which lead to increasing demands on deliberate development of new quality products and information of production processes.

The empirical analysis of demand for organic food shows – based on a review of literature – that central pre-conditions for expansion of the organic food market I labelling, sales channels, product innovation and market-ing. The analysis includes also the preparation of a comprehensive econometric estimation procedure on the basis of Danish consumers actual buying behaviour regarding food in 1997-98. In general, price elasticities appear high, as there is a close substitution of organic and conventional foods. In addition, all product groups appeared to be luxury goods as the budget share increases with increasing income. Consumption of organic food depends of the age of both the consumers themselves and of their children. In addition, price sensitivity appears lower in households with large consumption of organic food than in households with small consumption. On the basis of the econometric model, estimates of the consumption effect of different types of price decrease on organic food are calculated.

The subproject on methods for preparing scenarios for increasing dissemination of organic farming documents different scenario methodologies for agriculture which attempt to consider radically different developmental paths from those predicted by quantitative estimation. The methods include a systematic processing of personal valuations of future developments from experts in different positions. Especially the Netherlands has a rich experience using these methods in preparing agriculture policy. Among the results is the political choice of developing “precision farming” rather than organic farming. From Denmark the experiences of the Technology Council and the Bichel Commission regarding organic farming development are included in the discussion. The experiences of the subproject are summarised in three radically different developments paths for organic farming – one leading to stagnation, the other to growth as forecasted in Action Plan II and the third to organic farming as the dominant farming system. The scenarios vary on three dimensions: the balance between environment and agriculture policy concern, the market development and the structure of agriculture. The subproject is not finished yet but conclusions will include considerations on safe and unsafe elements of a strategy for the development of organic farming and on the way political intervention may influence development.