D3.1 : Report on current and future livestock systems

Summary

Deliverable 3.1 characterises current and future European livestock systems at the farm or enterprise level.
This task was led by Aberystwyth University (ABER) and the Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL), with contributions from many partners from within and beyond the project.
The first phase in the task aimed to characterise current European livestock production systems for cattle, pig, poultry and small ruminants at farm level, and an initial characterisation was reported within the Milestone 11 report “Initial characterisation of European livestock”. The challenge was how to build a representative typology of livestock production systems at European level, including key information about sustainability. After reviewing existing characterisation of livestock systems, a new approach was developed to utilise both quantitative and qualitative data. Firstly, as key information sources, the European Eurostat and FADN databases were explored, and general livestock systems identified at European level through clustering. Hierarchical clustering based on a principal component (HCPC) analysis conducted in R identified clusters for each livestock category. These clusters were statistically assessed as well as manually checked for likelihood. This process had limitations due to the specifics of each dataset, e.g. FADN farm typology groups all monogastric species in one farm type due to small sample sizes but cross-referencing between the more detailed Eurostat data allowed an improved clustering for specific livestock classes within the FADN data.
Secondly, a survey with quantitative and qualitative indicators was created to collect information about the livestock systems of each European country from the PATHWAYS partners and other experts. It was designed to capture general information, but more importantly, many aspects absent from the databases, such as specific information regarding rations, grazing access, physical productivity KPIs and more. In total 56 responses were received, detailing 171 system specifications, which were subsequently supported by expert interview findings.
Finally, the three database cluster classes were merged at NUTS2 level to identify regions with common and unique attributes. This was then manually cross-checked with the survey data and typical systems were identified across all relevant regions, i.e. individual merge classes were grouped to a reduced number of final system types. As a final step, the identified systems were presented as posters at the PATHWAYS annual meeting in 2023 for validation by participants. The final selection of systems forms the basis of the defined systems presented in this report and summarised in Figure 1, overleaf. This system inventory will be used in subsequent tasks within the project to analyse selected systems through holistic LCA approaches to ensure a good representation of the diversity of livestock systems in Europe.
The second phase of the task was to develop and characterise future livestock systems for all sectors.
Workshops within WP2 created multiple ‘storylines’ for use within the project and Task 3.1 interpreted these to develop possible future farm system scenarios for each sector. Three of the storylines were most appropriate for livestock farm level scenarios, including Efficiency First (EF), Feed no Food (FnF) and High Animal Welfare (HAW), with two further storylines not pursued as they either eliminated livestock production (Stockless), or were aimed at regional socio-economic changes (Rural Renaissance), so were less suited for environmental LCA assessment.
Whilst the WP2 workshops to develop the storylines provided outlines of objectives for future systems, precise sector level details were not prescribed. Therefore, a process of researching information from literature, industry guides and experts was undertaken and reflected upon to develop the sector scenarios.
Within the EF storyline, all sectors were further intensified, with assumptions around improved feeding, breeding, housing and emission control, leading to increased productivity and improved feed conversion efficiencies. The FnF storyline caused the least changes to the extensive ruminant sector but system redesign for the intensive monogastric sector. Due to the exclusion of grains and pulses for livestock broiler production was assumed to be discontinued. The HAW storyline was more diverse, and whilst the intensity of the livestock sector would be significantly reduced compared to EF, all sectors could continue to operate.
For each sector, specific changes and the baseline systems utilised were identified and described, providing a characterisation for use in subsequent analysis within Pathways and ultimately available as a dataset for use beyond the project.
Overall, whilst meeting the aims of the task, this analysis also highlighted the difficulties in achieving a livestock classification for the whole of Europe. Limitations within the data sources, whether that is fine detail missing from Europe-wide official databases, or lack of coverage when using case study literature or conducting interviews about regional or specific systems, all contribute to difficulty generating a consistent characterisation. However, this report and the subsequent lifecycle and economic analysis through WP5 will provide a comprehensive analysis of current and future systems under varying storyline assumptions, enabling the development of transition pathways for the European livestock sector.