Regionale Projektionen des ökologischen Landbaus in der EU: Szenarien zum 25%-Ziel und langfristigen Wachstum

Summary

In light of shifting political priorities and national implementation delays, the EU’s Farmto-Fork target of 25% organic farming by 2030 faces considerable challenges. This study presents organic area projections for the EU under three contrasting scenarios — Business as Usual, Green Public Policy (policy-driven) and Organic on Every Table (market-driven)—developed within the OrganicTargets4EU project. Using a logistic growth modelling framework with regional differentiation, we generate country-level projections for organic farmland expansion across arable land, grassland, and permanent crops. The projections highlight how alternative drivers, policy incentives, consumer demand, and national differences in soil-climatic, structural, and institutional capacities, shape the trajectories towards the 25% target.
Country-specific outcomes for 2030 reveal marked heterogeneity in conversion pathways, reflecting variations in policy commitment, market readiness, and production structures. Our findings underscore the diversity of potential outcomes under different incentive regimes and the risks of uneven progress, with location-specific implications for consumers and the environment. This points to the need for differentiated and context-sensitive policies in the next phase of EU organic and agri-environmental strategies.