Drei Szenarien zum 25%-Ziel im Ökolandbau im CAPRI-Modell: Politik, Markt und divergente Entwicklungsszenarien

Summary

This paper assesses the land use, production, and environmental impacts of increasing organic farming to 25% of EU farmland by 2030, as targeted in the EU’s Farm to Fork strategy. Using the CAPRI modeling system, we quantify the effects of three different scenarios developed by Curtiss et al. (2025):
(1) Green Public Policy, a policy-driven transition;
(2) Organic on Every Table, a market- and demand-driven expansion; and
(3) Divergent Pathways, reflecting uneven national approaches.
In all scenarios, agricultural production in the EU declines moderately (~5%), with notable shifts from cereals and fodder maize to legumes and fodder legumes. Livestock reductions is consistent in all animal categories. Global warming potential (GWP) from agriculture fall by around 5-6%, with regional variation. The main distinction among scenarios lies in which land‐use categories and regions experience the conversion, showing that the environmental cost‐effectiveness of organic expansion varies strongly with land‐use type and
location.