Deliverable D2.1 - Scenarios for the development of the organic sector

Summary

This Deliverable provides a comprehensive foresight analysis of the pathways and policy options for achieving the European Union’s Farm to Fork (F2F) target of 25% organic farmland and a significant increase in organic aquaculture by 2030. Drawing on scenario analysis, participatory workshops, and national backcasting studies, the report demonstrates that current business-as-usual trajectories are insufficient: projections indicate that, without structural transformation, the organic share of agricultural land in the EU will plateau between 12% and 19%, falling short of the F2F ambition. To address this gap, the project developed four contrasting scenarios for the future of organic agriculture and aquaculture in Europe. These scenarios—ranging from policy- driven expansion and citizen-led mobilisation to market-driven growth and fragmented, regionally divergent pathways—were constructed through expert engagement and tested for their feasibility and desirability among key stakeholders. The analysis reveals that no single pathway is likely to deliver the F2F target in isolation; rather, coordinated, multi-level action is required, combining robust public policy, market incentives, and active civil society engagement.