{Tool} Using scenario analysis and backcasting to strengthen organic food & farming strategies. Creator(s): Zanoli, Raffaele and Mora, Oliver. Issuing Organisation(s): Università Politecnica delle Marche, IFOAM Organics Europe. OrganicTargets4EU Practice Abstract. (2025)
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Summary
Practical recommendations
To test opportunities, threats and strategies, combine scenario analysis (aka scenario planning, exploring multiple plausible futures) with backcasting (building pathways connecting milestones and actions to be implemented to reach a desirable 2040 vision).
•Co-create scenarios with farmers, processors, policymakers, and researchers to identify key drivers of change (markets, climate, regulation, technology).
•Explore impacts of each scenario on organic farming practices, markets, and value chains.
•Backcast from preferred futures to define concrete policy and business steps needed today.
•Compare options across scenarios to identify robust strategies that perform well under uncertainty.
•Integrate results into regional action plans and CAP Strategic Plans to enhance coherence and resilience.
| EPrint Type: | Practice tool |
|---|---|
| Teaser: | Improved foresight, shared vision, and more adaptive, evidence-based strategies for organic food systems. |
| What problem does the tool address?: | Organic sector actors often lack structured tools to anticipate future challenges and test long-term strategies. |
| What solution does the tool offer?: | Apply scenario analysis and backcasting to identify resilient pathways and align actions with long-term goals. |
| Country: | Italy |
| Type of Practice Tool: | Practice abstracts |
| Agrovoc keywords: | Language Value URI English policy analysis http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3b1987ba English advisory services http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8631 English innovation platforms http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2ab08db1 English sustainable development http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_35332 |
| Subjects: | Knowledge management > Research methodology and philosophy > Systems research and participatory research |
| Research affiliation: | European Union > Horizon Europe > OrganicTargets4EU European Union > Organic Farm Knowledge International Organizations > International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements IFOAM > IFOAM Organics Europe Italy > Univ. Politecnica delle Marche (prev. Univ. Ancona) |
| Horizon Europe or H2020 Grant Agreement Number: | 101060368 |
| Related Links: | https://organictargets.eu/, https://organic-farmknowledge.org/tool/56496 |
| Project ID: | OFK |
| Deposited By: | De Simone, Dr. Ambra |
| ID Code: | 56496 |
| Deposited On: | 17 Dec 2025 15:42 |
| Last Modified: | 17 Dec 2025 15:42 |
| Document Language: | English |
| Status: | Published |
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