Nitrogen Availability Is Likely To Challenge Organic Farming Production At The Global Scale

Summary

Organic agriculture is often proposed as a promising approach to achieve sustainable food systems but Its capacity to meet the global food demand remains debatable. Some studies have investigated this question, but they have missed a critical ecological phenomenon by not considering the role that nitrogen (N) cycling plays in sustaining food production in organic systems. Using a global spatial N cycling model, we show that a 100% conversion to organic agriculture would lead to a large gap in global food production compared to the current – i.e. non-organic situation. Organic food availability would thus not be sufficient to match global food demand. We also show that lower conversion shares would be feasible in coexistence with conventional farming when coupled with demand-side solutions, such as reduction of the per-capita energy intake or food wastage. These results are critical to explore the option space of the global food system in a sound and systemic manner.