What prospective scenarios for 2035 will be compatible with reduced impact of French beef and dairy farm on climate change?

Summary

The agricultural sector is being called upon to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). A scenario approachwas developed to explore the plausible futures of the French bovine sector and their impact on climate change.These scenarios encompass a Business As Usual scenario (S1-BAU) and alternative contrasting scenarios: (S2)cattle production increase to meet a high global demand under a liberal policy, (S3) refocus on internal demandwithin France, with an upmarket move to ‘green’ products, (S4) committed public policy to reduce GHGemissions. This paper analyses how key drivers of these scenarios (e.g. subsidies on investment, reduction ofmarket risks, carbon tax, limitation of concentrate feed in animal diets) affect the evolution of production,economics, and environmental impact on climate change of typical French suckler cow and dairy farms, bymeans of simulations performed with a bio-economic model. To adapt their farming systems to the scenarios,farms can opt for variably intensive/integrated practices per animal and per unit land area. Some technologicalprogress in animal production, crop production, and farm equipment is also modeled. Results show that in S1-BAU, milk production, net income and impact on climate change of dairy farms rise. Beef production and impacton climate change decrease slightly in suckler cow farms. Impact on climate change per unit of product decreasesowing to higher productivity per animal and to a more integrated management of crop production. Alternativescenarios underline that reorienting public support toward farm investment would further intensify dairy farmsand increase their income, but would reduce production and income of suckler cow farms and favor crop production(S2). Climate change impact per unit of product is more strongly reduced in S3 (organic farming withlow feed concentrate) than in S2, but with a reduced production, particularly for milk. A carbon tax decreasesemissions, but to the detriment of cattle production, especially suckler cow farms.