Population characteristics and the decision to convert to organic farming

Summary

We revisit some ideas of why farmers do not convert to organic farming from our previous article with a dynamic individual based model. In this model, an agent's decision on transitioning to organic is based on the comparison between the satisfaction with its current situation and the potential satisfaction with an alternative farming strategy. A farmer agent's satisfaction is modeled with the Theory of Reasoned Action. It is computed by comparing the agent's outcomes over time and comparing its current outcome against those of other agents to whom it lends great credibility ('important others'). The first study is based on prototypical farm populations. In this paper, the predicted conversion rate is studied with some French "cantons" having different practice intensities. The model is initialized with dairy farmers' data in these "cantons" in 2000. The results show that the "cantons" characteristics have great impact on the virtual adoption rate. Intensive "cantons" convert less than extensive ones. Extensive farms having not very good environmental outcomes seem to convert the most.