4228: Assessing Price Forecasting Models for Organic Commodities
(2005) Assessing Price Forecasting Models for Organic Commodities . Poster presented at Researching Sustainable Systems - International Scientific Conference on Organic Agriculture, Adelaide, Australia, September 21-23, 2005.
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Summary
This project develops price forecasting models to guide organic commodity marketing decisions. Forecasting models for organic commodity prices at the farm level are specified and tested using a comprehensive national farm price series data set collected for organic commodities in the United States. A framework for testing the predictive ability of competing models using conditional predictive ability is developed. Forecast performance is evaluated using the root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) for point forecast comparison along with tests for market timing ability of the forecasting model.
| Document Language: | English |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | organic price forecasts, seasonal autoregression, price risk, assessing forecast performance |
| Subject Areas: | Food systems > Markets and trade |
| Research affiliation: | International Conferences > ISOFAR conferences > Researching Sustainable Systems 2005 |
| Total budget (Euro): | 0 |
| Orgprints ID Number: | 4228 |
| Contact: | ISOFAR, |
| Deposited On: | 15 November 2005 |
| EPrint Type: | Conference poster |
| Published?: | Unpublished |
| Peer Review Status: | Peer-reviewed and accepted |
| Additional Publishing Information: | The paper presented here is the final paper submitted by the authors to the conference Researching Sustainable Systems. The final edited papers are available with the following publication: Köpke, Ulrich; Niggli, Urs; Neuhoff, Daniel; Cornish, Peter; Lockeretz, Willie und Willer, Helga, (Hrsg.) (2005) Researching Sustainable Systems. Proceedings of the First Scientific Conference of the International Society of Organic Agriculture Research (ISOFAR), Held in Cooperation with the International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements (IFOAM) and the National Association for Sustainable Agriculture, Australia (NASAA), 21 – 23 September 2005, Adelaide Convention Centre, Adelaide, South Australia.. Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL, CH-Frick, and International Society of Organic Agriculture Research (ISOFAR), c/o Institute of Organic Agriculture (IOL), DE-University of Bonn. http://orgprints.org/4013/ Distribution: Paper copies may be ordered from FiBL at a cost of 28 Euros plus mailing costs (see FiBL shop at http://www.fibl.org/shop); FiBL order number 1394. A PDF version is available free of charge for ISOFAR members via the member area of www.isofar.org. |
| Related Links: | http://orgprints.org/4013/, http://www.isofar.org/adelaide2005, http://orgprints.org/view/projects/int-conf-isofar-2005.html |
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