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Assessing Price Forecasting Models for Organic Commodities

Gubanova, Tatiana; Escalante, Cesar; Lohr, Luanne and Park, Timothy (2005) Assessing Price Forecasting Models for Organic Commodities. Poster at: Researching Sustainable Systems - International Scientific Conference on Organic Agriculture, Adelaide, Australia, September 21-23, 2005. [Unpublished]

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Summary

This project develops price forecasting models to guide organic commodity marketing decisions. Forecasting models for organic commodity prices at the farm level are specified and tested using a comprehensive national farm price series data set collected for organic commodities in the United States. A framework for testing the predictive ability of competing models using conditional predictive ability is developed. Forecast performance is evaluated using the root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) for point forecast comparison along with tests for market timing ability of the forecasting model.


EPrint Type:Conference paper, poster, etc.
Type of presentation:Poster
Keywords:organic price forecasts, seasonal autoregression, price risk, assessing forecast performance
Subjects: Food systems > Markets and trade
Research affiliation: International Conferences > 2005: 1st ISOFAR Conference > 2005: 1st ISOFAR Conference
Related Links:http://orgprints.org/4013/, http://www.isofar.org/adelaide2005, http://orgprints.org/view/projects/int-conf-isofar-2005.html
Deposited By: ISOFAR,
ID Code:4228
Deposited On:15 Nov 2005
Last Modified:12 Apr 2010 07:30
Document Language:English
Status:Unpublished
Refereed:Peer-reviewed and accepted
Additional Publishing Information:The paper presented here is the final paper submitted by the authors to the conference Researching Sustainable Systems.
The final edited papers are available with the following publication:
Köpke, Ulrich; Niggli, Urs; Neuhoff, Daniel; Cornish, Peter; Lockeretz, Willie und Willer, Helga, (Hrsg.) (2005) Researching Sustainable Systems. Proceedings of the First Scientific Conference of the International Society of Organic Agriculture Research (ISOFAR), Held in Cooperation with the International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements (IFOAM) and the National Association for Sustainable Agriculture, Australia (NASAA), 21 – 23 September 2005, Adelaide Convention Centre, Adelaide, South Australia.. Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL, CH-Frick, and International Society of Organic Agriculture Research (ISOFAR), c/o Institute of Organic Agriculture (IOL), DE-University of Bonn. http://orgprints.org/4013/
Distribution: Paper copies may be ordered from FiBL at a cost of 28 Euros plus mailing costs (see FiBL shop at http://www.fibl.org/shop); FiBL order number 1394. A PDF version is available free of charge for ISOFAR members via the member area of www.isofar.org.

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