Deliverable No. 6.4 - Protocol of consistent regional innovation scenarios

Summary in the original language of the document

This study proposes a set of consistent, regional innovation scenarios aimed at reducing the reliance on synthetic pesticides in Europe (including pesticide substitution and non-use scenarios). Scenarios, as we propose them in this study, are a combination of ‘what if’-questions. For instance: ‘What if 20, 40, 60, 80 or 100% of Slovenia’s silage maize production area was managed following organic production standards? How would variables like silage maize yield, quantity of milk produced, pesticide usage be affected (if keeping land-use constant)? And what if at the same time the climate changes? How would these variables be affected then?’. By consistent we mean following a systematic approach or a consistent design rationale (see chapter 3). By regional we either mean at country or European level.
Importantly, ‘what if’-questions should be relevant at country or European level. If they are too specific, a regional scenario is not meaningful. By too specific we mean involving only a single agronomic measure and/ or addressing a crop whose area share is too small.
The regional scenarios proposed here were developed on the basis of ‘farm management strategies’, which were identified in stakeholder workshops held as part of Task 7.2 (Frelih-Larsen & Riedel, 2024) and selected for an economic farm-level assessment in Task 6.3 (Meier et al., 2024). Building on output from Task 6.3, we focus at country level on Slovenia (focus crop: fodder crops), Bordeaux (France) (focus crop: grapes), and the Netherlands (focus crop: seed potatoes) – three out of four regions, which were also assessed in Task 6.3. Switzerland with focus crop apples is excluded here, as the area share of apples in Switzerland is too small for a country wide scenario to be meaningful.