Implications of changes in seasonal mean temperature for agricultural production systems: three case studies

Summary

- The performance of dairy cows will suffer from elevated temperatures, reflecting the extent and uncertainty of projected warming in different scenarios, with a marked increase in heat stress for non-intervention scenarios (A1B and A2) toward the end of the century. This calls for the adoption of protective measures in the management of indoor and outdoor animal environments.
- A substantial risk of a prolonged pest control season for the codling moth (an apple pest) is projected toward the end of the century for Northern Switzerland sites, and mid-century for the Ticino. Timely preventive programs are anticipated to represent a key ingredient of adaptation to changing risks from agricultural pests.
- Results suggest that in the near future viticulture could benefit from increasing temperatures as a wider range of grape varieties could be grown. Toward the end of the century negative impacts from extreme temperatures are nevertheless expected to become important.