Un sistema di certificazione risk-based per i controlli in agricoltura biologica: un’applicazione tramite Bayesian networks

Summary

Risk-based inspection system for the organic certification: a bayesian
networks approach.
The existing method of certification in organic agriculture system, which
requires a periodical inspection for all the operators, is inefficient due to the
high cost of these controls. A risk based decision support system, that could
assist the inspection body during the planning of the annual inspection visits,
is advocated to be more cost-effective and efficient. The risk based decision
support system is constructed as a Bayesian network; the models incorporate
the factors that influence risk of irregularity and analyse their effects by
determining probability of non-compliance. Empirical findings using a sample
of Italian data on inspection of organic farms, support the idea that the current
risk categories used by control bodies in Italy are reasonable, but could be
recursively updated by using a Bayesian network model and incremental
inspection evidence.