The Future of Organic Agriculture: Otopia or Oblivion?

Summary in the original language of the document

Organic agriculture could feed the world, but will it? A state of Otopia, an organic Utopia of 100% organic food and organic agriculture, is a dream, or is it a pipe-dream? And if a dream, might it manifest in four decades or 54 decades? The stated goal of the organic movement is the adoption worldwide of organic agriculture. That task has a long path to travel, with organic agriculture currently accounting for 0.8% of agricultural land worldwide. Two roads to Otopia are extrapolated from the rate of growth of global organics exhibited over the past decade. If an arithmetic rate of growth - think simple interest - continued indefinitely then a state of Otopia would take 544 years (2553). Under a geometric growth scenario - think compound interest - Otopia would be reached in 39 years (2048).