Waibel, Hermann; Garming, Hildegard and Zander, Katrin (2001) Die Umstellung auf ökologischen Apfelanbau als risikobehaftete Investition. [Transition to Organic Apple Production as Risky Investment.] Agrarwirtschaft, 50 (1), pp. 439-450.
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Summary in the original language of the document
Die Umstellung auf ökologischen Apfelanbau ist eine mit Risiko behaftete Investition. Auf der Grundlage von Daten aus 18 ökologisch wirtschaftenden Apfelanbaubetrieben in Norddeutschland und von Expertenaussagen wurden nach einer Analyse einiger ökonomischer Kennzahlen der Betriebe vier Fragen untersucht. Erstens, wie stellt sich unter der zu erwartenden Datensituation die Rentabilität einer Umstellung dar. Zweitens, welchen Einfluss hat die Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheit in den wichtigsten Einflussgrößen. Drittens, welche Rolle spielt die Sortenwahl und viertens die Sortenkombination in Hinblick auf die Verminderung des Risikos.
Zur ersten Frage lässt sich als Orientierung festhalten, dass bei einem Preis von mehr als 1 DM pro kg und Erträgen über 15 t/ha eine Umstellung rentabel wird. Diese Werte werden von besseren ökologischen Betrieben deutlich überschritten. Die Berücksichtigung von Risiko bestätigt, dass die Umstellungsinvestition auch dann rentabel ist, wenn man die Unsicherheit bei Preisen und ertragsbeeinflussenden Faktoren in Betracht zieht. Ein Vergleich der Sorten mit Hilfe des Kriteriums der stochastischen Dominanz zeigt, dass die schorfresistente Sorte ‚Topaz’ die Sorten ‚Pinova’, ‚Elstar’ und ‚Jonagold’ dominiert. Die Analyse der Sortenkombination macht deutlich, dass bei einer Annuität von weniger als 9000 DM die Sortenvielfalt maximal ist, wohingegen bei einer über 11000 DM pro ha liegenden Annuität nur noch die Sorte ‚Topaz’ in der Lösung verbleibt.
In dem Beitrag werden die errechneten Ergebnisse kritisch reflektiert und daraus die Schlussfolgerung abgeleitet, dass neben einem eklatanten Mangel an Daten zur Durchführung aussagekräftiger agrarökonomischer Analysen im Ökoanbau methodische Weiterentwicklungen erforderlich sind. Insbesondere die Verbindung neoklassischer Ansätze mit dem Gedankengut der Ökologischen Ökonomie könnte hier einen Beitrag leisten.
Summary translation
Based on the data of a survey among 18 organic apple producers in Northern Germany and complementary expert judgements the rentability of transition from conventional to organic production is analysed. It is hypothesized that changing from conventional to organic production is an investment because specific capital items are necessary for such a step. It is further hypothesized that in view of the limited experience and the very restricted availability of extension material such investment is particularly prone to risk.
The methodology applied to investigate the question of rentability and risk of the investment for the transition to organic apple production includes four steps. First, economic parameters of the 18 existing organic apple producers are being analyzed. Second, the net present value and the annuity of net benefits from transition to organic apple production is calculated. Third, the risk of such investment is analyzed by applying Monte-Carlo type stochastic simulation. This method was also used to investigate the relative advantage of different apple varieties. Finally, the effect of varietal diversification on the mean and the variance of income is investigated by using a MOTAD approach. Choices about varieties are especially important in organic apple production as this is a major tool to control pests and to achieve high prices on the market.
The analysis of the survey data confirmed the observation of previous studies that a distinction between extensive and intensive organic producers is reasonable. Results showed that only intensive apple producers are likely to be economically successful.
The results of investment analysis for a model farm representing the group of intensive producers showed that at a price above 1 DM per kg of apples and a yield of at least 15 t per ha put to transition is economical. Comparing these data with those from the current producers in Northern Germany, transition to organic apple production may be recommended to conventional farmers if they are prepared to take extra risk.
Results of the stochastic simulation confirm the result of the analysis under certainty. When risk is taken into account organic apple production remains an interesting option for farmers who are willing to learn and innovate. Comparing four apple varieties reveals that ‘Topaz’, a variety resistant to apple scab, is dominating all other varieties frequently grown by organic producers. Nevertheless, planting several varieties makes economic sense when risk is taken into account. Results of the MOTAD model show the trade-off between average annuity and its variance for different portfolios. At an annuity of less than 9 000 DM per ha high diversity can be observed. On the other hand, as income expectations rise, the number of varieties in the portfolio declines. In the extreme case of more than 11 000 DM only one variety, i.e. the variety ‘Topaz’ remains.
The paper also draws some preliminary conclusions as regards the possibilities for further economic studies on organic horticulture. It is concluded that aside from the severe data problem innovative model approaches are necessary to capture some of the real questions which are asked by the practitioners of organic farming as well as by policy makers. It appears that extending the neo-classic economic approaches by some elements of ecological economics can advance the analysis of organic farming.
| EPrint Type: | Journal paper |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | Biologischer Landbau, Apfelanbau, ökonomische Analyse, Risiko organic farming, apples, economic analysis, risk |
| Subjects: | Farming Systems > Farm economics |
| Research affiliation: | Germany > University of Hannover - LUH > Institute of Biological Production Systems |
| Deposited By: | Zander, Dr. Katrin |
| ID Code: | 13425 |
| Deposited On: | 29 Apr 2008 |
| Last Modified: | 12 Aug 2010 11:43 |
| Document Language: | German/Deutsch |
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Not peer-reviewed |
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