Organic EprintsORGANIC AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITYMark W.RosegrantauthorTimothy B.SulserauthorNielsHalbergauthorModelling the impacts of organic production up-scaled to regional and global levels gives an initial quan-tification of the potential extent of changes that large-scale conversion might induce. Optimistic estimates of change with respect to organic yield potential lead to modest impacts on global commodity prices, production, and trade. Conversion in high-input regions in Europe and North America to certified organic decreases production and increases commodity prices. Hunger in this scenario slightly worsens. Transition of low-input areas in Sub-Saharan Africa to non-certified organic leads to in-creased production and decreased prices. Food secu-rity improves slightly in this scenario. The switch for low-input regions helps decrease trade dependency in some commodities. Achievement of productivity levels in these scenarios is dependent on many factors that introduce a significant amount of uncertainty in the results. The extent of these impacts can be improved if concerted effort in research and development for yield and productivity enhancement is supported. Food security, food quality and human health Markets and trade Social aspects2006Conference paper, poster, etc.

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