71 1 archive 19 disk0/00/00/00/71 2002-10-03 2009-08-20 14:18:15 2009-08-20 14:18:15 conference_item show 0 en da2c1 main The 13th International Scientific IFOAM Conference, Basel, Switzerland yes 0 FALSE paper Wier Mette Smed Sinne pub 7consumer Demand modeling, price sensibility, market perspectives The market of organic foods has experienced tremendous growth during the period 1997-1998. Highest growth is experienced at the bread/cereal group where the volume share has increased by 143% during the whole period. During this period, relative organic prices have decreased, except for meat. Organic volume shares are highest for dairy products (10%), which is more than twice the share for bread/cereals (5%) and other foods (4%), which covers fruit and vegetables. In the bottom is the share of organic meat (1%). The model estimates price and budget elasticities. The consumption of animal products (dairy, meat) is more sensitive to price changes than consumption of vegetables, cereals, fruit and bread. The demand is characterized by very high elasticities, especially for organic foods. The high price elasticities can be explained by the fact that conventional and organic commodities are very similar. The high budget elasticity can be explained by the luxury nature of organic commodities. In the study, scenario analyses are carried out. These scenarios show that if the relative organic price decreases by 20% consumption grows considerably. The volume share of organic dairies will increase to 15%, the share of organic bread/cereals to 7%, the share of organic meat to 2% and the share of fruit/vegetables to 6%. 2000 published restricted 1139 1 71 1 application/pdf en validuser

confpap.pdf

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