?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=Market+Review+of+the+Welsh+Organic+Arable+Sector%2C+2007&rft.creator=Hitchings%2C+Roger&rft.creator=Clarke%2C+Sarah&rft.creator=Trump%2C+Andrew&rft.subject=+Cereals%2C+pulses+and+oilseeds&rft.subject=+Markets+and+trade&rft.description=The+supply+situation+for+Welsh+organic+arable+production%0D%0AOrganic+production+in+Wales+has+been+developing+steadily+in+the+last+five+years%2C+with+particular+emphasis+on+organic+cattle+and+sheep+production.+This+was+despite+over-supply+conditions+in+some+sectors%2C+notably+dairy%2C+following+the+very+rapid+growth+in+1999%2F2000.+The+area+of+organic+arable+production+has+tracked+this+increase+albeit+at+a+lower+level.+It+is+also+a+more+complex+situation+than+might+be+thought+because+of+the+different+ways+in+which+a+cereal+crop+or+mixture+might+be+harvested.+This+sector+is+one+of+the+least+surveyed+in+the+UK+with+the+exception+of+the+annual+Scottish+Organic+Market+Link+Producer+Survey+carried+out+by+SAC+with+SEERAD+funding.%0D%0ABetween+the+end+of+2002+and+end+of+2005%2C+the+number+of+holdings+increased+by+12%25+to+688%2C+and+the+certified+land+area+increased+by+29%25+to+71+thousand+hectares%2C+of+which+more+than+90%25+is+grassland.+Growth+in+Wales+has+exceeded+other+parts+of+the+UK%2C+reaching+5%25+of+agricultural+land+by+end+2005.+More+rapid+growth+is+projected+for+2006+and+possibly+2007.+The+arable+area+reported+to+Defra+shows+an+increase+over+the+period+2003+to+2005+(reported+as+end+of+January+2004+to+end+of+January+2006)+from+1958+ha+to+2358+ha.+This+represents+a+20%25+increase+over+the+period+at+a+time+when+organic+grassland+of+all+types+increased+by+34%25.%0D%0AThe+UK+position+for+the+supply+and+demand+of+organic+cereals+is+giving+considerable+cause+for+concern+at+the+present+particularly+in+the+area+of+organic+livestock+feed.+This+has+been+brought+about+by+marked+increases+in+organic+milk%2C+pork%2C+egg+and+poultry+sales+along+with+continuing+expansion+of+the+red+meat+sectors.+This+has+led+to+a+considerable+imbalance+that+is+likely+to+get+worse+over+the+coming+years%2C+something+that+will+be+amplified+by+changes+in+the+standards+with+respect+to+non+organic+feed+allowances.+It+is+estimated+that+the+UK+is+around+60%25+self+sufficient+in+home+produced+feed+grain+%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%93+the+shortfall+is+made+up+of+imports+from+around+the+world+and+a+number+of+factors+are+threatening+the+security+of+supply+from+many+of+the+exporting+countries.+The+calculations+involved+are+subject+to+a+number+of+crude+assumptions+and+there+is+universal+agreement+that+there+is+an+urgent+need+for+information+and+regularly+updated+statistics.%0D%0AActual+output+of+Welsh+arable+producers+is+extremely+difficult+to+quantify+precisely+because+it+is+not+monitored+with+the+regularity+and+at+the+level+of+detail+of+other+sectors.+Two+sets+of+figures+are+available+but+they+are+difficult+to+compare+because+one+relates+to+areas+planted+while+the+other+is+concerned+with+outputs.%0D%0AA+producer+survey+was+undertaken+using+a+detailed+telephone+questionnaire.+This+was+not+a+simple+exercise+as+it+proved+difficult+to+obtain+information+from+certification+bodies.+This+meant+that+it+was+difficult+to+identify+advance+those+producers+that+were+growing+arable+crops.+209+producers+out+of+a+total+of+502+livestock+producers+were+contacted%2C+responses+received+from+102+(a+response+rate+of+just+under+50%25)+and+40+of+these+were+arable+producers.+This+cohort+represented+913+ha+of+arable+production+or+29.5%25+of+the+total+organic+arable+area+in+Wales.%0D%0A39%25+of+the+arable+crops+grown+by+respondents+were+planted+as+mixtures+(usually+a+cereal%2Fprotein+mix)%2C+a+notable+difference+from+earlier+surveys.+Of+the+pure+stands+wheat+comprised+the+largest+area+followed+by+barley%2C+oats%2C+triticale+and+beans+in+descending+order.+50%25+of+the+crops+surveyed+were+harvested+as+whole+crop+and+47%25+as+grain+with+a+total+yield+of+1%2C458+tonnes.+In+the+year+under+survey+the+highest+proportion+of+a+single+crop+harvested+as+whole+crop+was+wheat+while+oats+constituted+the+largest+harvested+grain+crop%2C+results+that+were+somewhat+at+odds+with+other+work+but+are+almost+certainly+a+result+of+what+was+a+hot%2C+dry+season+with+low+silage+yields.%0D%0AOnly+455t+of+grain+was+actually+marketed+with+barley+accounting+for+the+highest+proportion+and+wheat+the+lowest.%0D%0AYields+as+reported+by+the+farmers+contacted+tended+to+be+on+the+low+side+with+respect+to+standard+figures+in+the+Organic+Farm+Management+Handbook+although+oats+were+slightly+better.+Triticale+was+particularly+poor+at+around+50%25+of+standard+yields.+The+same+cohort+of+respondents+reported+reduced+areas+for+the+2007+season%2C+an+overall+reduction+of+21%25+on+2006+figures%2C+and+an+anticipated+reduction+in+grain+to+be%0D%0Amarketed+(16%25).+Producers+reported+that+poor+producer+prices+are+a+disincentive+to+growing+grain+for+the+market%2C+a+somewhat+surprising+conclusion+given+the+recent+strong+movements+in+organic+cereal+prices.+Transport+costs+are+a+significant+factor+as+the+crop+has+to+be+moved+out+of+Wales+to+grain+merchants+and%2For+feed+mills.%0D%0AExtrapolation+of+the+above+figures+is+recognised+as+a+risky+and+imperfect+process+but+it+does+raise+a+number+of+questions+of+concern+not+least+the+existence+of+a+decline+when+overall+conversion+and+livestock+numbers+are+increasing%0D%0AThis+was+followed+by+a+trade+survey+that+contacted+both+the+grain+trade+and+compound+feed+producers.+The+responses+were+not+all+encompassing+but+covered+75%25+of+the+active+traders+in+numerical+terms.+The+responses+indicated+that+very+small+quantities+of+grain+are+supplied+into+Wales+for+processing+%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%93+most+grain+traded+moved+to+other+producers+within+Wales.+The+vast+majority+of+feed+is+imported+in+the+form+of+compound+feed+and+on+the+basis+of+the+responses+received+totalled+some+13%2C600+tonnes+for+the+2006+season.+Allowing+for+non+responses+it+is+estimated+that+the+actual+figure+was+around+16%2C000+tonnes+%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%93+11%2C000+t+for+ruminants+and+5%2C000+t+as+poultry+rations.+Feed+compounders+are+working+on+the+basis+of+demand+increasing+by+around+20%25+year+on+year%2C+partly+as+a+result+of+changes+to+the+standards.%0D%0AIt+is+estimated+that+the+demand+for+poultry+feed+will+increase+to+9%2C000+t+in+2009+while+ruminant+feed+is+predicted+to+increase+to+19%2C000+t+in+2009%2C+a+total+of+28%2C000t.+It+is+suggested+that+the+cereal+and+protein+crop+requirements+will+be+in+the+order+of+50%25+of+the+total+i.e.+14%2C000+t+each.+There+is+a+very+low+level+of+protein+production+in+Wales+and+this+demand+will+almost+certainly+be+fulfilled+through+the+use+of+imported+sources+of+soya.%0D%0AA+SWOT+analysis+was+undertaken+that+concluded+that+there+are+more+weaknesses+than+strengths+but+that+there+are+a+number+of+opportunities+for+increases+arable+production+not+least+the+strengthening+of+prices+across+the+board.+The+area+of+most+concern+and+seen+as+a+serious+threat+is+the+reported+21%25+decrease+in+plantings+for+the+current+season.%0D%0ARecommendations%0D%0ADespite+the+generally+positive+outlook+from+a+demand+perspective%2C+there+is+a+need+to+address+some+of+the+factors+that+might+discourage+producers+from+converting%2C+including+disruption+to+the+Organic+Farming+Scheme%2C+price+levels+that+do+not+always+reflect+the+costs+of+production%2C+access+to+markets+and+a+distinct+lack+of+support+for+the+sector.%0D%0ATo+address+this%2C+there+is+a+need+for%3A%0D%0A%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%A2+better+statistical+data+on+current+and+future+production+levels+and+market+shares+and+a+wider+appreciation+of+the+need+for+improved+levels+of+self+sufficiency%3B%0D%0A%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%A2+greater+publicity+should+be+given+to+events+and+trends+in+the+wider+organic+cereal+market+to+ensure+that+Welsh+organic+livestock+producers+have+all+the+facts+when+planning+for+the+future%3B%0D%0A%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%A2+a+series+of+events%2C+articles+and+other+media+coverage+and+special+attention+should+be+given+to+these+issues+in+the+Organic+Market+Wales+e-bulletin%3B%0D%0A%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%A2+enhanced+payments+through+the+OFS+through+a+mechanism+that+replaces+the+previous+AAPS+rate%3B%0D%0A%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%A2+the+new+Farming+Connect+service+to+focus+on+the+potential+for+home+grown+feed+when+working+with+organic+livestock+producers%3B%0D%0A%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%A2+an+increasing+focus+on+education+in+order+to+signpost+opportunities+for+young+people%3B%0D%0A%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%A2+an+evaluation+of+the+potential+for+the+establishment+of+an+organic+feed+compounding+operation+in+Wales+%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%93+this+could+reduce+costs+and+also+provide+market+opportunities+for+arable+producers%3B%0D%0A%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%A2+improved+production+systems%2C+supported+by+effective+research+and+development+and+knowledge+transfer%3B%0D%0A%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%A2+parallel+improvements+in+variety+and+mixture+choices+%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%93+this+may+involve+new+introductions%2C+a+re-evaluation+of+varieties+deemed+to+have+been+out-classed+and+the+development+of+landraces%3B%0D%0A%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%A2+a+clear+identification+of+suitable+areas+for+organic+arable+production+along+with+guidance+on+what+crops+to+grow+in+the+particular+soil+types+and+prevailing+climate%0D%0A%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%A2+improved+integration+of+effort+between+organic+sector+businesses+and+the+agencies+that+support+the+development+of+the+Welsh+horticultural+and+organic+sectors%3B%0D%0A%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%A2+improved+linkages+with+the+dairy%2C+arable+and+red+meat+sectors+to+benefit+from+complementarity+relationships+between+the+sectors+at+production%2C+market+development+and+promotional+levels.&rft.date=2007-06&rft.type=Report&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Forgprints.org%2F11072%2F2%2FArable_market_review_2007_report.pdf&rft.identifier=Hitchings%2C+Roger%3B+Clarke%2C+Sarah+and+Trump%2C+Andrew+(2007)+Market+Review+of+the+Welsh+Organic+Arable+Sector%2C+2007.&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Forgprints.org%2F11072%2F