ORGANIC AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY

Summary

Modelling the impacts of organic production up-scaled to regional and global levels gives an initial quan-tification of the potential extent of changes that large-scale conversion might induce. Optimistic estimates of change with respect to organic yield potential lead to modest impacts on global commodity prices, production, and trade. Conversion in high-input regions in Europe and North America to certified organic decreases production and increases commodity prices. Hunger in this scenario slightly worsens. Transition of low-input areas in Sub-Saharan Africa to non-certified organic leads to in-creased production and decreased prices. Food secu-rity improves slightly in this scenario. The switch for low-input regions helps decrease trade dependency in some commodities. Achievement of productivity levels in these scenarios is dependent on many factors that introduce a significant amount of uncertainty in the results. The extent of these impacts can be improved if concerted effort in research and development for yield and productivity enhancement is supported.