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Shifts in Apple Phenology under Climate Change in Switzerland and Implications for Exposure to Abiotic and Biotic Risks

Felber, Raphael; Stöckli, Sibylle and Calanca, Pierluigi (2018) Shifts in Apple Phenology under Climate Change in Switzerland and Implications for Exposure to Abiotic and Biotic Risks. In: Abstract Book - ESA2018. XVe European Society for Agronomy Congress (ESA), 27.-31.8.2019, Geneva, Switzerland, p. 65.

[img] PDF - English (Abstract)
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Online at: http://www.esa-congress-2018.ch/programme/programme-and-abstract-book/

Summary

It is expected that the development of plants and insects will be accelerated by global warming, resulting in an earlier occurrence of phenological stages in the future as compared to today. For plants, this could lead to a higher exposure to climatic shocks (late frosts in spring, and critical high temperatures in summer) and changes in the incidence of insect pests. Assessing the implications of such shifts in phenology is important to be able to devise, where necessary, means for reducing biotic and abiotic risks in plant production. In this contribution we present an analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on the risk of late frost and damages to fruits caused by critically high temperatures in apple orchards across Switzerland. We further discuss the possible effects of climate change on the appearance of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), the key apple pest in many areas of the world. To conduct the analysis, we run carefully calibrated phenological models for different apple cultivars and the codling moth, feeding them with updated, transient climate change scenarios covering 1980-2100 developed for Switzerland on a 2 km x 2 km spatial-resolution grid. The climate scenarios represent three different emissions pathways allowing for consideration of a wide range of future climates. The results are discussed in a broader context by comparison with findings from other countries.


EPrint Type:Conference paper, poster, etc.
Type of presentation:Speech
Keywords:climate change impacts, apple phenology, biotic and abiotic risks, Switzerland, Fruit-growing, orchard
Subjects: Environmental aspects > Air and water emissions
Crop husbandry > Production systems > Fruit and berries
Crop husbandry > Crop health, quality, protection
Research affiliation: Switzerland > Agroscope > ART - Reckenholz location
Switzerland > FiBL - Research Institute of Organic Agriculture Switzerland > Entomolgy
Deposited By: Stöckli, Dr. Sibylle
ID Code:34563
Deposited On:18 Feb 2019 17:41
Last Modified:18 Feb 2019 19:55
Document Language:English
Status:Published
Refereed:Not peer-reviewed

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